Every crash game multiplier has a mathematically exact probability of occurring. The "2× strategy" doesn't give you 50/50 odds — the house edge shifts it against you. This calculator shows the real probability of hitting any target multiplier, how often you'll see losing streaks, and whether your target is mathematically profitable.
| Target | Win Probability | Visual | 1 in N Rounds | EV / Round ($10 bet) | 10-Streak Loss |
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How This Calculator Works
The probability of a crash game reaching a multiplier m with house edge h is: P(win) = (1 / m) × (1 - h). This is the standard crash game formula derived from the exponential distribution used in Provably Fair algorithms.
Example: Targeting 2× in Aviator (3% house edge): P = (1 / 2.0) × (1 - 0.03) = 0.485 = 48.5%. Not 50/50 — the house edge shifts every multiplier slightly against you.
Expected Value (EV): EV = P(win) × profit - P(lose) × bet. In a crash game, EV is always negative — that's the house edge. At 2× with a $10 bet: EV = 0.485 × $10 - 0.515 × $10 = -$0.30. You lose 30 cents per round on average.
Losing streaks: The probability of N consecutive losses is P(lose)^N. At 2× target (51.5% lose rate), a 10-loss streak has probability 0.515^10 ≈ 0.13%. Sounds rare, but over 1,000 rounds it becomes likely. We show the average number of rounds before you'd expect to see such a streak.
Instant crash adjustment: Some crash games (like Aviator) have a ~2% chance of crashing at exactly 1.00× — an "instant crash" where all bets lose regardless of target. This is typically how the house edge is implemented. The instant crash rate is already factored into the house edge, so we include it for transparency but don't double-count it.
Disclaimer: These are mathematical probabilities based on the standard crash game formula. Actual results in any session will vary due to variance. Each round is independent — past results do not influence future outcomes. No strategy can overcome the house edge long-term. Only gamble with money you can afford to lose. BeGambleAware.org