Starting with $200 and betting $5 per round on Aviator — how long until you're broke? This calculator uses bankroll-to-bet ratio analysis to estimate your session duration under median, optimistic, and worst-case variance scenarios. The answer depends on more than just RTP.
How This Calculator Works
EV-based duration: The simplest estimate divides your bankroll by the expected loss per round: Rounds = Bankroll / (Bet × House Edge). At $200 bankroll, $5 bet, 3% edge: $200 / $0.15 = 1,333 rounds ÷ 120/hr = 11.1 hours. This is the theoretical maximum assuming perfectly average luck.
Variance adjustment: Real sessions have variance. Using the target multiplier, we estimate the win/loss volatility per round and apply a standard deviation adjustment. The median duration (50th percentile) is typically 25-40% of the EV-based estimate because negative variance streaks end sessions early. The 10th percentile (worst-case) can be as low as 10-15% of the EV estimate.
Bankroll-to-bet ratio: This is the single most important number for session duration. Below 20:1 you're in the danger zone — a few consecutive losses can wipe you out. The 50-100:1 range gives enough cushion to absorb normal variance. Above 200:1 you have very long sessions but small bet sizes relative to your bankroll.
Disclaimer: These are statistical estimates, not guarantees. You could bust in 10 rounds or play for days — variance is unpredictable in the short term. The house edge ensures long-term loss. Set a loss limit before you start and stop when you reach it. BeGambleAware.org